Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 21 per cent to approximately 61,000 units this year, after recording 77,347 residential sales in 2019. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 45.3 per cent to 88,500 units in 2021.
We are forecasting the provincial MLS® average price to finish the year up 1.8 per cent and to increase a further 5.6 per cent in 2021.
COVID-19 Stats
https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/COVID-19-Dashboard.pdf
About 35% of BC is on the move’ now compared with normal . Seoul is the city that is mostly ‘back to normal’ – posting almost 50% of the country ‘on the move’
About 12% of all Canadian mortgages have been deferred. In BC it is 7% of all mortgages have been deferred.
The mortgage deferral program has kept defaults down to .4% of all mortgages. This default rate is higher than the .25% default rate pre-Covid but is still in line with the 2008 recession rate of .45%.
It is estimated that without this program we would have seen a 1.2% default rate.
While the prime interest rate, the Gov of Can bond rate and 5 yr fixed mortgage rates have fallen to a historical low at 2.45%. the qualifying rate for new borrowers is still around 4.94%
https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020-02chart.gif
Employment in the Sales and service sectors have been hardest hit by covid – with health and natural resource sectors gaining ground. 15-24 year olds is the single age group that has suffered the most job losses. 8.2 million EI claims.
As of April the estimate is that we have lost 10.6% of our economic health (GDP)
After every recession (‘81/82. 91/91, 2008/2009) prices in BC residential real estate have rebounded.- sometimes dramatically.
Measures to flatten the Recession curve –
In 2008 global recession the Canadian gov. stimulus package amounted to 3 % of our GDAP. The Covid bailout package is 9% of our GDP
Restaurants – 80% still closed
The most vulnerable industries have been Retail and Accommodation and food services sector – accounting for almost 25% of total BC employment.
Low paying jobs are down 30% and mid paying jobs off by 20%
While Real GDP has contracted by 6.2% it is forecast there will be a 3.7% growth in Real GDP next year. This summer a big upswing in real GDP is forecast. It still won’t bring it up to pre-covid levels – which is expected by next spring.
After the May long weekend we have seen 90 sales per day REBGV. Compared with 50 sales /day in April.
June 2019 saw approx. 16,000 active listings now we are at 11,000 – but climbing rapidly.
Here is the sales & forecast for 2021
https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020-06forecastchart.gif
Call me anytime if you have any general real estate questions, or questions about your property in particular.